IDA in Gulf...Where will she Go?

Ida finally became a hurricane last night and has slowly strengthened to a Cat. 2 with winds now at 100 mph. Looking at satellite loops this afternoon, it appears to me Ida is moving more northward than NHC is forecasting. That would be good for us as the farther to our east the better. However, as she morphs to more a winter-like storm later tonight and tomorrow, even tho her wind speeds will decrease, her wind field will increase. What I expect here is towards daybreak Monday, winds will be 20-30 mph with higher gusts to 40 +. Obviously stronger winds will occur along the coast. Little if any rain until late tonight with 1-3" falling between dawn and dusk on Monday. Some flooding problems tomorrow with tides 2-4 feet above normal. Watch the wind direction tomorrow. IF it stays east of ESE, the center of IDA is coming closer and impacts will be greater. IF it turns more northerly or NE , IDA is turning more towards the FLA coast and we'll see less wind, rain & lower tides. This to me will be more like Hurricane Juan (1985) or Hurricane Cindy (2005). If we were in September, impacts would be much greater. I'm counting on those cooler water temps. to knock down Ida's current intensity. Next update this evening.

Ida struggling over warmest waters...

One would have thought if Ida was going to become a hurricane she would have done it by now. 1) Ida is over the warmest waters of the NW Caribbean and 2) wind shear is modest but will get worse as she moves northward. As NHC says, her window of opportunity to increase is at best 24-36 hours. NHC thinking hasn't changed as their latest track brings it about 100 miles SE of the mouth of the river before turning it eastward towards AL/Fl. The upper trough over Texas is beginning to lift northward the secondary non-tropical low over the SW Gulf and the whole system will morph into a huge Gulf circulation. Impacts for SE LA are increasing winds (20-30+, higher along coast) and possible rainfall of 1-3" Sunday night into Monday night. Heavier amounts can be expected to our east. High Tides will cause some flooding outside our levee protection system (Corps now calls it "risk reduction system"), but our pumps should be able to keep up with only some minor street flooding. This will not be a Gustav and our newly rebuilt levees showed they can stand up to a Cat. 2 storm. What's left of IDA will be more like a winter "nor'easter". It will be more a concern for marine interests. Tonight's VIPIR run keeps the heaviest rains and strongest winds to our south & east. I'll blog again before noon tomorrow.