Beware...Strong Storms Coming ?

An unusual dip in the jet stream will create a deep east coast trough that will push a cold front off our coastline during the day on Saturday. For the next 3 days we will see much higher rain chances than we have seen for weeks. Initially, the storms will be slow movers Thursday & Friday resulting in locally heavy rainfall that could produce some street flooding. As the upper trough deepens over us on Saturday, the storms will move faster, but they could also be stronger with some damaging winds. We'll need to monitor this situation closely.

Fortunately the tropics remain quiet. My summer intern, Wesley looked over the past 59 years back to 1950 and found that there have been 22 years where the 1st named storm hadn't formed yet. So this is not that unusual that we haven't had a named storm yet. The latest named storm in all those years? 1977 on August 29th when Anita formed. She turned into a Cat. 5 hurricane but headed away from us into Mexico. With a front moving into the Gulf this weekend, we'll need to watch for any development as it sinks farther down into warmer waters. The upper flow will prevent any problems for us since we'll see strong northerly winds protecting Louisiana.

Another July Front? You kiddin' me?

For the past 4-6 weeks, there has been an OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN in the upper air circulation over North America. This has resulted in a huge heat wave over the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast while the Great Lakes & NE are still waiting for any summer heat. Computer models are shifting the hot, upper high westward during the next 5 days while again deepening the east coast trough. This will do 2 things to finally increase our rain chances. 1) As the highs moves away, we will get under the "ring of fire" pattern and 2) another cool front will drop down (might even push off our coast on Saturday?) bringing much higher rain chances with it. Since we are nearly a foot below normal/average on our yearly rainfall, let's hope Mother Nature helps us out. (have you seen your water bill lately?)

As we hit mid July, almost on cue the Tropical Atlantic off of Africa is getting more active. No cause for alarm, but the longer range models finally bring the Atlantic Ridge(Bermuda High) northward back to where it belongs at this time of the year. That will allow the tropical easterlies to return to Florida & the Gulf meaning our "typical"(40%+) daily rain chances will return. It also means any disturbance that might form would travel around the southern (bottom) side of the Bermuda High and get into the Gulf. This usually happens every 4-5 days. Obviously the key factor here will be the shear over the Gulf when & if a storm comes. As another front pushes into the Gulf on Saturday, we'll need to keep an eye on any development much like what happened in 1983 (Alicia) Right now, the tropics remain quiet.